A potential “super” El Niño could reduce the economies of heavily affected African countries by 1% to 2%, resulting in losses of up to $20 billion across the continent and triggering mass migration, the African Development Bank’s top climate expert has warned.
Anthony Nyong, the AfDB’s director for climate change and green growth, told Reuters that the weather phenomenon could bring severe droughts, flooding and storms, threatening food and water security while putting additional pressure on government finances and banking sectors.
Forecasters have warned that El Niño could become one of the strongest on record if current warming trends in the Pacific Ocean continue. The phenomenon has previously caused severe drought in Southern Africa and heavy rains and flooding in East Africa, leading to crop failures and rising food prices.
Nyong said countries including Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi and Nigeria could face particularly severe impacts, with mass migration expected as people flee areas affected by food and water shortages.
He also warned that competition for grazing land and water could worsen instability in vulnerable regions, while agricultural losses could reach about $327 million and fisheries productivity could decline by 1% to 4%.
The AfDB is planning a bank-wide seminar in September to assess the potential impact of El Niño on its investments. Nyong said the bank was prepared to restructure projects and help affected countries access additional climate financing.
Africa could need up to $100 billion in climate adaptation financing this year, he said, as the continent seeks to strengthen resilience before disasters strike.
